Key Takeaways
- The load profile is the mandatory base data for correct tariff selection.
- Short-term forecasting directly affects energy purchasing cost.
- Anomaly detection produces far fewer errors than classic threshold alarms.
- Tariff simulation calculates the savings impact of different scenarios.
Energy consumption data is the richest data source reflecting a factory's operational health. When analyzed correctly, it does not only reduce cost; it directly affects production efficiency, equipment health and tariff optimization.
What is a Load Profile and Why Does It Matter?
A load profile is the curve showing a facility's hourly power demand over a given time period. This curve is unique to each facility and is shaped by equipment structure, shift arrangement and production type. Knowing the load profile enables:
- Determining the most suitable tariff type (single-time vs. multi-time)
- Correctly sizing the contracted power
- Planning peak-shaving strategies
- Analyzing the effect of maintenance downtime on the energy budget
The Two Time Horizons of Consumption Forecasting
Short-term forecast (1-48 hours): Used to decide which circuit or line to shut down the next day, and when to bring compressors or cooling groups online. It directly affects energy purchasing cost.
Medium-to-long-term forecast (1 week – 12 months): A fundamental input for annual energy budget planning, facility expansion decisions and ROI analysis of new equipment investments.
The SolarTools Consumption Forecast Model
SolarTools cross-trains the facility's historical hourly consumption data with the shift calendar, holidays and seasonal production variables. The model learns separate coefficients for these factors:
- Weekday / weekend pattern
- Air temperature effect (HVAC loads)
- Production intensity classes (full capacity, half capacity, downtime)
Forecast-Based Alarms with Anomaly Detection
When actual consumption goes outside the forecasted band, the system generates an automatic alarm. This method produces far fewer "false positives" than classic threshold-based alarms because the model has learned the facility's normal. An unexpected motor start at 04:00 or a pump left running after hours — such anomalies are detected instantly.
Annual Savings Calculation with Tariff Simulation
With a load profile forecast in hand, different tariff scenarios can be simulated. The answer to "If I shift 30% of my consumption to night hours, what would my annual savings be?" is calculated within minutes.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much historical data is needed for load profile forecasting?
A minimum of 3 months, and ideally 12 months, of hourly consumption data is sufficient. For seasonal variables, 24 months is preferred.
Do the forecast results automatically feed into tariff comparison?
Yes. The SolarTools consumption forecast module works integrated with the invoice analysis module and automatically updates tariff simulations.
Are holidays and planned maintenance downtime included in the model?
Yes. By entering the operation calendar into the system, the model recognizes these periods as expected consumption reductions rather than anomalies.
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